Asked about the Taliban peace talks and what evidence there was that the militant group was serious, he cited the high-level delegation sent to discussions with the US. [41] Personal interview, Afghan diplomat, November 27, 2009. War was averted when the Taliban, after the threat from Iran and under pressure from the United Nations, returned the bodies of the murdered diplomats and sent the remaining Iranian captives home. According to media reports, Ghaani visited Bamiyan Province in 2018, apparently as the deputy Iranian ambassador to Kabul. In order to dispel the notion that the Taliban is predominantly Pashtun, and that the appointment of a Hazara militiaman is just a political gimmick, Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen said “it is not that Taliban have included people from the other communities, instead they were with us [from] long ago,” arguing that commanders from the Tajik and Hazara community have played an important role in the Taliban’s operations. Indeed, Western capitals and Tehran could coalesce around stabilizing Afghanistan. A return to that scenario would be unfortunate for Iran for several reasons. Following the disputed presidential election last fall, when Abdullah challenged the outcome, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed the need for the creation of an inclusive government, implying a tilt in favor of Abdullah. Veteran US diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad has taken part in UN-backed talks on Afghanistan that involve Iran, a rare area of dialogue between the countries as President Donald Trump imposes intense pressure on Shiite Muslim state. Although the Iranian government has positive ties with Kabul and has supported a number of economic projects in the country, it appears to be maintaining leverage over the direction of the country by offering some support to the Afghan Taliban. Putting aside whether the agreement will meet American or Afghan expectations, there is another valid question: What’s in it for Iran? Following the political agreement between President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif immediately telephoned the two leaders to congratulate them for ending the political stalemate and expressed his country’s desire to help support the intra-Afghan dialogue. Advocates of these agreements believe they will pave the way for US and other foreign troops to gradually withdraw from Afghanistan within 14 months, heralding the end of the 18-year war that Doug Bandow of the Cato Institute has pointed out has lasted “longer than the Civil War, Spanish-American War, World War I, World War II, and Korean War combined.”. To understand Iran’s role in Afghanistan today, it is necessary to examine its actions during the 1979 Soviet invasion and subsequent occupation of Afghanistan. He received his Ph.D. in International History from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). A Kalashnikov rifle made in Iran, for example, costs $200-300 more than one made in another country because the Iranian models are also capable of firing grenades up to 300 meters. Trump has imposed sweeping sanctions on Iran in hopes of reducing Tehran’s regional clout, and in January ordered a drone strike in Iraq that killed its best-known general. After the elimination of Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), in January, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of undermining the Afghan peace process by using militant groups in the country, and also asked the Taliban to disengage from Tehran. Geopolitically speaking, Afghanistan has all the characteristics of an “insulator state,” that is, a battleground for regional rivals that has segmented internal dynamics that preclude any one actor from establishing long-term authority and that at the same time is untethered from the security dynamics of its region. This means that Iran will not only concede influence to Pakistan, it will also need to seek an agreement with an Afghan government expected to be under the Taliban’s influence. Yet, until the clerical regime accepts that support by elements of the IRGC toward the Taliban will have a detrimental impact on Iran itself, its “ambiguous” policy will continue in the foreseeable future. The link to reset the password will be sent to your email address. During the ill-fated Taliban regime in the late 1990s, Iran supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, a non-Pashtun coalition of other ethnic groups. This is particularly true with Afghanistan’s Shi`a-minority Hazara community, which resides in the central and northern regions of the country. [23] “Tehran Accused of Complicity in Growing Weapons Trade,” Institute for War and Peace Reporting, April 20, 2009. [36], Today, Herat is one of the most stable and prosperous regions in Afghanistan. Iran has helped rebuild Afghanistan’s radio and television infrastructure, and has increased its own radio and television programs in Dari. Also, the US-Taliban agreement simply means the United States is leaving Afghanistan in the hands of the militants, a Sunni-Pashtun group that enjoys close ties to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency. Tehran almost went to war in 1998 with the former Taliban regime in Afghanistan after the killings of Iranian diplomats and civilians. After spending three years in captivity, he escaped and fled a third time to Iran. Khalilzad warned, however, that the United States would target any Iran-backed groups "taking action against us," saying Washington was "monitoring them very closely.". All rights reserved. Britain, the Soviet Union, Iran, Pakistan, China and Saudi Arabia all have taken advantage of this to wage their own classic and proxy wars in the country. Tehran was incensed by the killings and dispatched 200,000 troops to the border as the government decided whether or not to invade. [22] Clark, “Taliban Claim Weapons Supplied by Iran.”. An August 2009 report authored by General Stanley A. McChrystal, the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, cited Iran’s “ambiguous role” in the country, stating that Iran is providing aid to the Afghan government while at the same time allowing weapons to pass into the hands of the Taliban. Connect with friends faster than ever with the new Facebook app. Despite being historically anti-Taliban, Tehran seems to have changed its tune on the understanding that the Taliban would no longer persecute Shi’a Hazaras. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Feb. 29 with Taliban delegation leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Doha, Qatar, and announced the agreement, which Baradar and veteran US diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad signed. The complete Iranian statement seems confusing in desiring the withdrawal of foreign forces while at the same time opposing an agreement based on withdrawing all foreign forces. [35] J.C. Hurewitz ed., The Middle East and North Africa in World Politics: European Expansion, 1535-1914 (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1975), pp. [1] Stanley A. McChrystal, “COMISAF’S Initial Assessment, Secretary of Defense Memorandum June 2009, Initial United States Forces – Afghanistan (USFOR-A) Assessment,” Headquarters, International Security Assistance Force, Afghanistan, August 30, 2009. Following the U.S.-Taliban peace deal in February, some disgruntled Taliban commanders and leaders linked to Iran are said to be trying to sabotage negotiation efforts aimed at ending the conflict. Tehran has long viewed Washington’s military presence in Afghanistan as part of a plan to encircle Iran. "But we have offered to meet with Iranians on this issue, that they should join various forma where we are there and they are there, to discuss the future of Afghanistan," he said. [39] Following the completion of a highway from its border with Afghanistan, Tehran financed an extension linking Herat to Afghanistan’s remote northern provinces. But it has also stepped up its own contacts with the militants, with US officials accusing Tehran of backing attacks against Western forces. The town’s population is about 80,000 people, of whom up to 2,000 are thought to be Taliban. It is hardly imaginable that Iran would tolerate a radical Sunni Islamist group at its border in the long-term and cope with it solely based on mutual interests. Through 2009, British military forces have intercepted shipments of Iranian-made arms in Helmand Province, which have included Russian-made SA-14 “Gremlin” man-portable, low-altitude surface-to-air missiles. Sign up for the Week in Review newsletter. [12] Mohsen Milani, “Iran’s Policy Towards Afghanistan,” Middle East Journal 60:2 (2006): pp. The new Iran-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan corridor can play an effective role in developing regional trade and cooperation, contributing to peace and security in Afghanistan. September 23, 2020 - 16:38 TEHRAN- Iran’s Deputy Energy Minister Homayoun Haeri, who has travelled to Afghanistan on the head of an Iranian energy delegation, discussed the ways for the expansion of Iran-Afghanistan ties in the field of electricity infrastructure with the Afghan officials. [14] That level of cooperation, however, has somewhat dissipated and become more antagonistic. “We are monitoring them very closely. The ceremony followed a “reduction in violence” agreement that took effect Feb. 21. The agreement affirms several times that the document is a concordant between “the United States and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is not recognized by the United States as a state.” Ironically, one section of the three-page agreement says that the Taliban will not “provide visas, passports, travel permits or other legal documents to those who pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies,” tasks that are functions of a recognized state. Moreover, Iran appears most interested in carving out influence in Afghanistan’s western Herat Province at the expense of heightened Taliban violence elsewhere in the country. Today, strategic cooperation between Iran and the West should be theoretically possible because they have converging interests and common aversions in Afghanistan, such as the re-emergence of al-Qa`ida fighters, the Taliban and narco-traffickers. Due to this seemingly contradictory dual policy — one ambivalent and one conciliatory, one overt and one covert — it is difficult to analyze Iran’s intentions and influence in Afghanistan. 525-535. It doesn’t obligate the Taliban to accept or comply with any particular political system, and it doesn’t entail the Taliban disarming or forgoing the imposition of an Islamic emirate through negotiations. A three-year war with Rabbani’s government exhausted Hizb-i-Wahdat’s military strength and resources. Since then, Khan, who is now minister of water and energy in Afghanistan, has developed and built upon close relations with the clerical regime in Tehran. Show full articles without "Continue Reading" button for {0} hours. Tehran almost went to war in 1998 with the former Taliban regime in Afghanistan after the killings of Iranian diplomats and civilians. This has given it common ground with the Taliban, which has waged war against U.S. forces in Afghanistan for decades now; the age-old dictum that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” has created an opportunity for rapprochement between the two sides. [11] In 1996, the Taliban eventually overthrew the Rabbani government. They will do whatever is necessary.”[24] In September 2009, Afghan police found explosives-packed jerrycans—which they thought came from Iran—during a search of Taliban fighters traveling on the Bagram-Kabul highway. [31]Ironically, just as Tehran ignored the situation to its own detriment in the 1990s, it stands to lose a great deal again if there were a resurrection of a Taliban-led order in Afghanistan. [4] Adam Tarock, “The Politics of the Pipeline: The Iran and Afghanistan Conflict,” Third World Quarterly 20:4 (1999): p. 805. Iran had supported the US overthrow of the Taliban after the September 11, 2001 attacks but relations with Washington sharply deteriorated soon after when then-President George W. Bush called Tehran part of an "axis of evil.". This explains Iran’s ability and willingness to play different roles depending on the context and changing circumstances. Iran is an ambitious regional player with a clear understanding of its complex surroundings and a cautious plan to chart a path through them. However, Iran faces allegations that Afghan refugees have been forced back across the border into Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Afghan security forces killed 65 Taliban militants during an intense battle in eastern Afghanistan, officials said Thursday, as fighting rages between the two sides despite the ongoing peace talks. In recent years, Saudi Arabia’s harsh stance against Qatar, where the Taliban maintains its political office, and Qatar’s improved relations with Tehran have helped Iran and the Taliban become closer. Thus renewed disagreement over Afghanistan would obviously not be helpful. There is a good chance the Taliban will try to change the current constitution and political arrangements, which means, at best, reducing the power of minorities, like the Hazaras and Tajiks, in addition to imposing Sunni Islamic law and principles as the bases of government. It is worth noting that Soleimani’s successor, Gen. Esmail Ghaani, who was his deputy for more than a decade, was previously responsible for Iran’s engagement with Afghanistan, focusing primarily on Shi’as in the Af-Pak region. US Charges on Iranian Role in Afghanistan Rejected Tehran dismissed an American envoy’s accusation of Iran’s destructive role in Afghan peace efforts, describing it as … Second, there are those within Tehran’s state apparatus who allegedly “donate” weapons. As a result, although Tehran condemned the Soviet occupation and demanded it withdraw its forces, the clerical regime was careful not to allow its policy to damage its otherwise amiable relations with Moscow. Photo by REUTERS/Ibraheem al Omari. "Iran would like to keep us entangled in a conflict without winning or losing but paying a high price in Afghanistan until there is an agreement between the US and Iran," Khalilzad told a virtual event of the US Institute of Peace. Deeming this statement to be a sign of interference, the Afghan government condemned Iran’s proposal. Sign up for the Week in Review newsletter. [28]Afghanistan is the world’s largest producer of opium, and Helmand is where much of the country’s poppy crop is grown; the proceeds from the drug trade help bankroll the Taliban, especially when it comes to purchasing weapons and explosive materials.[29]. According to UN estimates, the number of Afghan citizens registered in Iran is around one million, but the Iranian government believes the total is much higher — at around 2.5 million Afghan migrants, both legal and illegal. © 2018 Middle East Institute All Rights Reserved | Accessibility Policy | Built by Social Driver. First, by providing the Taliban weapons to battle NATO troops, Tehran is presuming that with the Taliban preoccupied, it will leave Herat alone and not disturb the “economic sphere” that Iran is developing in the province.